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Rousseff Likely Brazil’s Next President, Eurasia Says (Update1)More From Businessweek - Bloomberg - By Andre Soliani
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff has a 60 percent to 70 percent chance of winning October elections, research company Eurasia Group said. Rousseff will benefit from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s endorsement and her pledge to continue his economic policies, Christopher Garman, the Eurasia Group’s director for Latin America, wrote today in a report. “The most important factor in this year’s election, which is often underappreciated by pundits, is the simple desire for continuity among voters,” Garman said. “This is Rousseff’s election to lose.”
The fastest economic expansion in more than two decades this year and the growth of the middle class under Lula will create support for Rousseff, Garman said. Rousseff, who served as Lula’s chief of staff and had previously never run for public office, erased a lead by opposition party candidate Jose Serra in a Sensus poll released yesterday. Serra’s attempt to cast himself as representing continuity is a “tough sell” for an opposition candidate, Garman said.
Rousseff was supported by 41.8 percent of those surveyed by Sensus about their preferences should the candidates face off in a runoff election, while Serra, a member of the Social Democracy Party, had 40.5 percent backing. The May 10 to May 14 survey of 2,000 people has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. Brazil’s first-round vote is scheduled for Oct. 3. Should none of the candidates get more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round, a runoff election between the top two vote getters will take place Oct. 31.
Latin America’s biggest economy will grow 6.3 percent this year, the fastest pace since 1986, according to the median estimate of 100 analysts surveyed by the central bank. The real weakened 1 percent to 1.8182 per dollar at 3:40 p.m. New York time from 1.8006 yesterday.
--Editors: Brendan Walsh
To contact the reporters on this story: Andre Soliani in Brasilia at asoliani@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff has a 60 percent to 70 percent chance of winning October elections, research company Eurasia Group said. Rousseff will benefit from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s endorsement and her pledge to continue his economic policies, Christopher Garman, the Eurasia Group’s director for Latin America, wrote today in a report. “The most important factor in this year’s election, which is often underappreciated by pundits, is the simple desire for continuity among voters,” Garman said. “This is Rousseff’s election to lose.”
The fastest economic expansion in more than two decades this year and the growth of the middle class under Lula will create support for Rousseff, Garman said. Rousseff, who served as Lula’s chief of staff and had previously never run for public office, erased a lead by opposition party candidate Jose Serra in a Sensus poll released yesterday. Serra’s attempt to cast himself as representing continuity is a “tough sell” for an opposition candidate, Garman said.
Rousseff was supported by 41.8 percent of those surveyed by Sensus about their preferences should the candidates face off in a runoff election, while Serra, a member of the Social Democracy Party, had 40.5 percent backing. The May 10 to May 14 survey of 2,000 people has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. Brazil’s first-round vote is scheduled for Oct. 3. Should none of the candidates get more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round, a runoff election between the top two vote getters will take place Oct. 31.
Latin America’s biggest economy will grow 6.3 percent this year, the fastest pace since 1986, according to the median estimate of 100 analysts surveyed by the central bank. The real weakened 1 percent to 1.8182 per dollar at 3:40 p.m. New York time from 1.8006 yesterday.
--Editors: Brendan Walsh
To contact the reporters on this story: Andre Soliani in Brasilia at asoliani@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at
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Por André Soliari
18 de maio (Bloomberg) - A candidata presidencial Dilma Rousseff tem 60-70 por cento de chance de ganhar as eleições de outubro, a empresa de pesquisas Eurasia Group, disse. Rousseff beneficiará aval do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva e seu compromisso para continuar as suas políticas económicas, Christopher Garman, diretor do Eurasia Group para a América Latina, escreveu hoje em um relatório."O fator mais importante na eleição deste ano, que é frequentemente subestimado pelos especialistas, é o simples desejo de continuidade entre os eleitores", disse Garman. "Esta é a eleição Rousseff para perder."
O rápido crescimento econômico em mais de duas décadas neste ano eo crescimento da classe média no governo Lula vai criar apoio Rousseff, disse Garman. Rousseff, que atuou como chefe de pessoal de Lula e nunca haviam concorrer a um cargo público, apagados por uma liderança da oposição José Serra, candidato do partido em uma pesquisa Sensus divulgada ontem.A tentativa de Serra para lançar-se como representando a continuidade é uma venda "duro" para um candidato da oposição, disse Garman.
Rousseff foi apoiada por 41,8 por cento dos entrevistados pelo Sensus sobre as suas preferências devem ser os candidatos se enfrentam em um segundo turno eleitoral, enquanto Serra, membro do Partido Social-Democracia, teve 40,5 por cento de apoio. A 10 maio - 14 maio levantamento de 2.000 pessoas, tem margem de erro de 2,2 pontos percentuais.Brasil volta em primeira votação está marcada para 03 de outubro. Se nenhum dos candidatos conseguir mais de 50 por cento dos votos no primeiro turno, um segundo turno entre os dois getters votação terá lugar 31 de outubro. A maior economia da América Latina vai crescer 6,3 por cento este ano, o ritmo mais rápido desde 1986, de acordo com a estimativa mediana de 100 analistas consultados pelo Banco Central.
- Editores: Brendan WalshPara contatar os repórteres nesta história: André Soliani em Brasília em asoliani@bloomberg.net
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